Africa Brief/Nosmot Gbadamosi
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump paid little attention to Africa in his first term, except for making disparaging comments. Nevertheless, there are clear African winners and losers now that he’s poised to return to the presidency.
South Africa and Kenya are among those worried about potentially diminished relations—unlike Nigeria, Uganda, Morocco, and Egypt, which foresee increased trade and arms deals without what they see as lectures on human rights.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was among the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory even before The Associated Press called the election on the morning of Nov. 6. “We look forward to achieving peace together, preserving regional peace and stability,” he posted on social media. Sisi later called Trump that evening to extend further congratulations.
Both leaders respect strongman politics. During his first administration, in 2019, Trump sparked controversy by yelling out, “Where’s my favorite dictator?” as he waited for Sisi to arrive at a meeting during a G-7 summit held in France.
At that time, Trump applauded Sisi for being “a very tough man.” He added, “We understood each other very well.”
Egypt was the world’s seventh-largest importer of weapons from 2019 to 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Cairo imported many of those weapons from the United States during the Trump administration, but in more recent years, more have come from Russia, Italy, and Germany.
Cairo has faced scrutiny over attempts to influence U.S. politics. The U.S. government investigated allegations that Sisi offered Trump $10 million to boost his 2016 presidential campaign, according to a Washington Post investigation. Biden called for “no more blank checks for Trump’s ‘favorite dictator,’” during his electoral campaign back in 2020. He froze some aid money last September over Egypt’s human rights record, and the assistance was targeted with some new scrutiny following the conviction of outgoing Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez on accepting bribes from Egyptians linked to the government.
Yet Egypt’s mediator role between Israel and Hamas over the past year has solidified its importance as a U.S. ally, prompting Washington to overlook Cairo’s authoritarian regime; $1.3 billion in annual military aid to Cairo was granted this year.
Sisi’s government has silenced critics by jailing them. There are thousands of political prisoners in Egypt, including U.S. citizens, according to the State Department’s own 2023 report on the country. Washington was continuing “a rigorous dialogue with the Egyptian government on the importance of concrete human rights improvements that are crucial to sustaining the strongest possible US-Egypt partnership,” the State Department said last September.
Under Trump, Egypt can expect no such reprimands on human rights. By focusing on the Abraham Accords as a key driver of foreign policy in the region, Trump could inadvertently grant Egypt free rein to cement its role as a significant player in Horn of Africa geopolitics. Egypt militarily backs Somalia’s and Eritrea’s grievances against Ethiopia. It also supports the Sudanese army and its war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
Officials in Cairo are hoping that Trump’s strongman style may bring about a decisive end to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, during which Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have deterred transit through the Suez Canal and harmed Egypt’s economy.
