Nosmot Gbadamosi / Africa Brief
Africa has not featured much in foreign-policy discussions leading up to the U.S. presidential elections, but the outcome will have a significant impact on African countries and beyond. Africa has the world’s fastest-growing populations and economies, as well as the critical mineral resources needed for the world’s green energy transition.
Historically, successive U.S. governments have neglected the continent, seeing it as a security problem to be managed, which created a vacuum of influence filled by China and Persian Gulf nations. Policies drafted to counter rivals have led to criticism that the U.S. relationship with Africa is a reactive one.
In more than 20 African nations, security has worsened compared to a decade ago, according to a report by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. A rollback of democracy and a growing trend of insurgencies have brought trade opportunities for Russia, Turkey, and even Hungary, all promising to bring back peace in exchange for resources.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s canceled trip to Angola this month would have marked his first visit to Africa while in office. Biden has said that he will visit Angola in December, during his final months as president. But his choice of Angola—a state that has restricted protests, free speech, and media freedom—highlights the inconsistent U.S. approach to democracy promotion in Africa. As former U.S. Ambassador to Botswana Michelle Gavin wrote recently, a “visit from President Biden will be interpreted as an embrace of Angola’s unpopular government.”
Vice President Kamala Harris—the Democratic nominee—has visited the continent, and she chose democracies. More than 8,000 young Ghanaians gathered to hear Harris speak in Accra during a three-nation African tour that also included Tanzania and Zambia. In December 2022, the U.S. government signed a memorandum of understanding to support the African Continental Free Trade Area, and in March, Washington launched an initiative to support Africa’s creative industry amid a global surge in popularity for contemporary African pop music. Harris is expected to largely continue Biden’s African policy as defined in the U.S. Strategy Toward Sub-Saharan Africa, launched in 2022.
Security analysts suggest that a win for former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, could prioritize aggressive military solutions over humanitarian assistance. But as Islamist insurgencies by groups linked to al Qaeda ramp up in the Sahel, the threat to U.S. national security could lead a Harris administration to adopt the same policies.
Military operations in Africa expanded under former U.S. President Barack Obama despite concerns from African civic groups. “Only a small fraction of U.S. government investment on the continent focuses on cultivating good governance,” U.S. Rep. Sara Jacobs wrote in Foreign Policy in 2022. “The worst thing the United States could do is be the chief ally, arms dealer, and enabler of corrupt and abusive regimes.”
Both Harris and Trump would continue Washington’s policies that seek to compete with Beijing on trade in Africa but face an uphill battle in wrangling lost influence back from the Middle East, Turkey, and China.
During his first term, Trump recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region in exchange for Rabat normalizing relations with Israel. Trump could strengthen cooperation further with Mauritania and Morocco on areas of defense and anti-immigration policies in the Sahel, particularly in the wake of a costly U.S. withdrawal from Niger earlier this year.
Regardless of who wins, analysts believe the battle against China for critical minerals in Africa will be the primary driver of both parties’ policies toward Africa.
